Apple Investor

Capital Preservation First, Maximum Profits Second

Apple Beats with Semi-Blowout Q1, Adopts nonGAAP Accounting

by Ernie Varitimos on January 25, 2010

Q1 Consensus vs Actual

It may take some time for investors to recalibrate their spreadsheets, but Apple has another blowout quarter, and adopts the new nonGAAP accounting. Also, Apple has revised all statements back to 2007, thus TTM earnings and P/E will be as if subscription accounting had never happened. There’s speculation that this accounting change may point to a departure from the iPhone single carrier model.

After some crunching of the numbers, it appears that the numbers reported under the new method may mask the fact that growth has slowed some compared to past quarters. There is a very big surprise however, and that is Asia revenue growth of 142%, and a 54% uptick in CPU units.

  • $3.67 EPS, $15.68 Billion in Revenue
  • 21 million iPods – down
  • 3.36 million Macs – up
  • 8.7 million iPhones – up
  • 40.9% Margin!
  • $41 billion in cash, Wow!
  • 283 stores in 10 countries, averaging $7.1 million in revenue per store compared to 7.0 million per store a year ago.

Here’s the link to the 10-Q

  • gctwnl
    I was wondering: What would happen to call option prices if Apple decided to spend its cash hoard (partly) on paying dividends? These would tank I guess.
  • mconnors4563
    In my opinion Mac growth is going be a standout as Apple rolls out new Apple stores around the world. They are extremely effective marketing machines for Apple product and many people around the world just aren't that familiar with the Macintosh and Apple. I am hoping that iPhone subscriber growth will pick up when they diversify away from AT&T exclusivity, but that is not guaranteed. It was said during the conference call that they don't expect the same increases with diversification of carriers in "all cases."
  • sewardtotty
    Although I think investors are less focused on iPod than they used to be, your commentary implies that iPod sales were disappointing. A closer look, however, reveals that iPod Touch sales were up over 50%! The lower margin iPod is being supplanted by the higher margin iPod Touch, meaning that although the absolute number of iPods sold decreased, the revenue from those sales was up.

    Additionally, the change in accounting means that all analysts now have to revise their earnings estimates. A very quick and rough calculation by me indicates that Apple earnings this year will somewhere around $12 per share. For those who write that the stock is expensive at 33X last 4 quarters, you now have to wrap your mind around the fact that the p/e is actually something like 15-16X. Furthermore, if you strip out the cash per share-let's call it $40 per share for the sake of simplicity-the p/e drops to 13.

    One last thing. The stock first hit $200 in December 2007. Based on Apple's revised numbers available on its website, we now know that AAPL earned $3.93 in 2007, $5.36 in 2008, and $9.08 in 2009. Today, the co. reported $3.67 for the 1Q of 2010. We all know that the selloff in the shares was completely unwarranted given the company's performance during the period 1/08 to present, but now the stock is again at $200 despite the fact that EPS will have risen by more than 100% by the end of this fiscal year. What? Find the dark cloud if you want, but I see the company's share price as a coiled spring ready to let go.
  • Richard
    Good analysis, and cash on hand has always been high for them (extreme). I found it interesting that on the conference call it came out that somewhere around 58% of revenue came from outside the U.S. (as well as the usual dodging of many good investor questions).
  • Your points are well taken, and I agree. I was also referring to the slightly lower than expected iPhone number. The consensus was almost 8.9 million sold vs the actual of 8.7 million. Not a big deal, especially when you consider they added another $6 billion to the bank account.

    The other thing is that these revised figures were mostly known, so I have to believe that most of this ultra performance was baked into the stock price. Perhaps putting it out there for the general public will charge up investor attitudes.
blog comments powered by Disqus

Previous post:

Next post: