Apple Investor

Capital Preservation First, Maximum Profits Second

How to Tell if the Apple, Market Uptrend is Over

by Ernie Varitimos on January 25, 2010

In order to confirm a trend reversal, you need to watch for the behavior of the indicators over a few days following the initial move. In this video I explain what to look for, in either the case of a reversal, or a pause in the action.

  • I generally agree with your conservative approach to not holding any stock into earnings... although there are exceptions along the way. Nevertheless, thanks!
  • Tim
    Curious. Why do you believe that technical analysis is going to give you future insight in this case when you know that a specific news item - more precisely, a poorly reported non-news-item - prompted the Friday sell-off and you saw how the market reacted even late in the day on Friday? Surely there's a discernible difference between an event and a trend, even if you employ a predominantly TA philosophy.
  • The only truth in the market is price and volume, and that's determined by investor sentiment, not news. The news events on Friday were only catalysts to what was destined to happen, they did not cause it. Sentiment readings have been bullish for two weeks, I've been alerting people to them that long, the market just needed a little push to set it on its way.

    If you subscribe to the tenants of Dow Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis, then you believe that news events are reflected in market price almost immediately, sometimes even before they happen. They could have impact on a trend, if they are powerful enough events. But generally the trend continues, and plots price action on much bigger forces than singular events.
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