This is one of the most popular questions I get; “How should I trade Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) during earnings?”
So, how I read this is, how do I trade AAPL leading up to, and post earnings? What should my strategy be based on the earnings outcome? What are the historic results post earnings should Apple report well, or report poorly, or even neutral. Is there a way to gauge how the stock will react?
The answer to all the questions regard how AAPL might react post earnings is…no one knows. There’s no statistically significant pattern in any of the cases. Also, it’s extremely difficult, even in the high volatility case, which way AAPL will go.
There are two things however, that are as close to absolute certainties as one could imagine.
- AAPL volatility will rise into earnings, and crash immediately post earnings
- AAPL will continue it’s upward trend weeks or maybe months after reporting
Trading AAPL using discretionary methods is about as sure a certainty that you are going to lose money as is the Fed will not raise rates anytime soon. The best you can do is simply buy the stock and hold, or do a volatility play with options. There is another alternative…
Trade AAPL using multiple non-correlated automated strategies, like the ones we run in the AppleInvestor AutoTrader service. Ideally you would trade AAPL in fully automatic mode, so as to completely eliminate any discretion you would inject into the trading decision. This will give you the best return in the long run, and take away all the angst you will undoubtedly feel as you second guess your analysis, entries, exits and risk management…assuming you do that stuff ?
Apple (AAPL) 7 Year Equity
What To Expect
More of the same. AAPL has proven that they can manage a new product, and their current product supply chain better than any other company in the world. It’s almost a guarantee that they will beat their own for ward guidance from last earnings in April. It’s almost a certainty that they will have another record breaking quarter compared to the same period last year. Keep in mind that the summertime quarter is historically their weakest quarter of their average fiscal year.
